Kazakhstan macro: expect robust economic growth in 2023 and still-high inflation
Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 3.2% in 2022 and, in nominal terms, reached KZT101.5 trln ($220.5 bn). The country’s GDP per capita rose to $11.2K as population reached nearly 19.78 mln people, and despite some weakening of the tenge last year, GDP per capita was higher than in 2021 ($10.4K). In 2020 it was lower ($9.1K), while the highest GDP per capita was in 2013 ($13.9K).
Following some improvements seen in 4Q22, it looks as though economic growth continued to gain momentum in January 2023 as the Bureau of National Statistics announced that the short-term indicator (which incorporates economic activity in industry, agriculture, transportation, construction and trade) grew by 5.0% y-o-y last month. Industrial output grew by 1.4% y-o-y as mining was up by 1.2% and manufacturing by 1.6%. Construction grew by 12.5%, the IT and communications sector by 18.1%, and trade by 19.4% (all numbers are y-o-y). Agriculture and transport grew by 3.3% y-o-y and 7.9%, respectively. Retail trade was up by 20.8% y-o-y mainly due to a base effect caused by the protests a year ago. There are still strong base effects across many other sectors (including the oil-and-gas sector), however by mid-year, they are likely to be eliminated, implying that the y-o-y growth figures may look too high for the time being in some sectors, but in 2H23, they will look more normal. Overall, one can expect the country’s economic growth to accelerate this year and exceed 4.0%.
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