Kazakhstan macro: Growth remains moderate as the economic climate is affected by shocks

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 19 Oct 2022 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator that aggregates activities in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications was up in 9M22 by 3.5% y-o-y. In 8M22, it grew by 3.7% y-o-y, therefore, pointing to some deceleration in September. One could expect this deceleration as the y-o-y growth of this indicator was higher in September 2021 (5.0% y-o-y) than in August 2021 (4.7% y-o-y). The overall perception is that the Kazakh economy was able to “fasten its seatbelt” and successfully manage through a protracted period of turbulence. In 2023 the turbulence is likely to be less severe, even though the slowing EU and Chinese economies, combined with a highly uncertain situation in Russia, may bring some negative surprises.

We have previously mentioned on several occasions that deciphering the Kazakh statistics is a challenge as the country’s Bureau of National Statistics, in many instances, doesn’t provide a complete set of growth numbers for the indicators it publishes on a monthly basis, making it difficult to forecast economic growth. This already happened earlier this year, when the Kazakh government downgraded its outlook for 2022 but later once again upgraded it. The same occurred with the IMF and the World Bank. The former upgraded its 2022 forecast of the country’s GDP growth from 2.3% to 2.5-2.8%, while the latter moved it up from 2% to 3%., i.e., in line with the trends, which were more or less seen based on the 9M22 statistics.

So far, the country’s economic situation looks relatively stable and might be a bit better than reported by the official statistics. For example, retail sales by individuals on the markets contribute to 34% of total retail sales, and 66% of consumer goods are sold in shops or by “trading companies.” However, proper accounting in the former segment is uneasy. Despite high inflation, real incomes in Kazakhstan grew by 3.8% in 8M22 (the latest available period), i.e., well above retail sales. On top of that, from September, one could see a statistically visible effect on retail sales from the Russians who moved to Kazakhstan after the partial mobilization.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.