Kazakhstan macro: navigating between Scylla and Charybdis

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 23 Sep 2022 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

Even as Russia and a few other countries are heading toward a recession, Kazakhstan is doing relatively well this year – despite high inflation and some disruptions in the oil-and-gas sector caused by maintenance work in two main oil fields and problems with the CPC. The economic outlook looks decent, and the budget remained stable despite significant amendments – largely influenced by protests earlier this year. Elevated inflation, the weakened tenge, and high oil prices supported the budget. Kazakhstan has to maintain a balance in relations with Russia and the rest of the world to avoid more serious shocks and negative consequences. Navigating between Scylla and Charybdis was never an easy task. So far, Kazakhstan seems to be able to comply with Western sanctions on Russia without angering its neighbor much . Even though the Kazakh government has recently slightly downgraded its range for expected 2022 GDP growth, there are reasons to believe this growth may visibly exceed 3%.

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