Kazakhstan political economy: on the way toward diversification
Snap presidential elections will be held in Kazakhstan on November 20, in which six candidates will participate. However, it is almost clear that the current head of the state, Mr. Tokaev, will win. According to the polls conducted by the Institute of Eurasian Integration, Mr. Tokaev as president enjoys the support of 70.3% of the country’s population, and his trust level is even slightly higher — 74.9%. According to the polls, over 70% of the Kazakh population think Mr. Tokaev’s initiatives would help the country to become more prosperous. The Kazakh population welcomes promises such as that the country’s land won’t be on sale to foreigners. People welcome various reassurances to increase social support for those who need it, such as large and low-income families. Whether Mr. Tokaev will be able to deliver what the Kazakh population expects from him is yet to be seen. The room for maneuver amid easy solutions is limited as the share of government consumption in the Kazakh GDP is low at just 11.7% of GDP.
To deliver growth, the Kazakh government will have to rely on a different but more reasonable approach, such as improving the business climate and encouraging investors to come to the country. It is likely to be challenging but worth a try. Hence, economic policy in Kazakhstan and the country’s geopolitical positioning will be very pragmatic. Kazakhstan cannot and is unwilling to rely excessively on relations with Russia and will keep them increasingly down to earth.
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