​Kazakhstan’s consolidated budget in surplus in 4M22 as high oil price boosts revenues of the National Fund

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 25 May 2022 by Alexander Kudrin

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The Finance Ministry reported that in 4M22 total revenues of the consolidated budget) accounted for 45.5% of the amended annual plan (KZT15.8 trln) and reached KZT7.2 trln. The consolidated budget comprises the republican budget, local budgets, and the National Fund net of mutual transfers. Expenditures of the consolidated budget accounted for 31.7% of the amended annual plan. The consolidated budget was in surplus of around KZT 1.0 trln in 4M22. The republican budget which normally accounts for around 80% of the consolidated budget, was almost balanced (the deficit accounted for KZT 0.3 trln) over the same period. The budget’s own tax revenues reached 37.2% of the annual target and accounted for KZT 3.3 trln while the transfer from the National Fund added KZT 1.8 trln (50.6% of the annual target) on the budget’s revenue side. The government spent from the republican budget 33.8% of the amended annual plan in 4M22. A very strong revenue flow to the National Fund gives plenty of flexibility to the Kazakh government. In 4M22 the Fund accumulated 83.2% of the targeted annual revenues (i.e., KZT2.1 trln out of the planned KZT 2.5 trln). As the oil price is likely to stay elevated for the rest of the year, Kazakhstan may turn into a twin surplus economy in 2022 as the current account balance and the fiscal balance could end up in the positive territory. Note, that in 2022, the country’s formally approved consolidated budget assumes a deficit of around KZT 3.8 trln. High oil price is likely to deliver the current account surplus this year even amid continuously strong repatriation of profits by the foreign investors. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin