Kazakhstan’s economy grew steadily in December prompting a good start for 2023

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 16 Jan 2023 by Alexander Kudrin

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The country’s economy was on the rise at the very end of 2022 as the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes six sectors that cover over 60% of the national economy) grew by 3.5% in 2022. In December alone, it grew even faster (by 5.1% y-o-y). Even though industrial growth was not impressive in 2022 (just by a mere 1.1%), some other sectors delivered much better results. Construction was up by 9.4% in 2022, as it reportedly increased by 37.4% y-o-y in December (and the m-o-m growth last month was also abnormally strong). Recent statistical data in construction is an example of peculiarities in the Bureau’s publications, as the unusually fast growth in December was probably just compensation for underreported activity in the earlier months. There are similar puzzles in retail sales data and a few other sectors, such as retail sales reportedly delivering a mere 2.1% growth in 2022. Agriculture, trade (wholesale and retail combined), communications, and transportation services grew by 9.1%, 5.0%, 8.0%, and 3.9% in 2022, respectively. Meanwhile, relatively poor results in the industry stemmed not only from well-known issues (such as maintenance works and problems with CPC, which seem largely over) but also due to a strong contraction in the metallurgical industry in December. It was down last month by about 20% y-o-y but was still up by 1.9% in 2022 (these effects seem to be temporary). December statistics hint that GDP could have likely grown in Kazakhstan by at least 3% in 2022, which is not a bad result that sets a strong base for growth in 2023. In a few days, we plan to digest the availab...