Kazakhstan's sovereign debt market: positive vibes

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 21 Apr 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

In 1Q23, the Ministry of Finance fulfilled 25% of its annual plan for local bond issuance. We do not rule out that the National Bank may begin a rate-cut cycle amid decelerating inflation, which may fuel demand for long-term bonds in KZT. An essential feature of the borrowing program this year is an increase in the share of floating rate bonds to 45% of the aggregate amount of the offering. This paper seems to be a tool to reduce the cost of debt service in the future. If global interest rates stabilize, we would expect foreign investors' exposure to local government bonds to rise to KZT 600 bln by the end of 2023.

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