Keep calm and carry on

TURKEY - Report 15 Oct 2023 by Murat Ucer

Industrial production and retail sales were both weak in August, with the latter shrinking sharply, m/m, and the ongoing divergence between the two thus reversing somewhat. Whether this signals the beginning of a sharp downturn remains to be seen, however.

The current account balance posted a relatively modest deficit in August, which, together with large (unidentified) inflows through the errors and omissions, enabled sizeable reserve build-up, broadly in line with expectations.

The cash budget posted a relatively modest deficit in September, with the 12-month rolling deficit improving somewhat compared with August. A notable budget over-performance vis-à-vis the MTP estimate is almost certain now, but we should nevertheless brace for a significant surge in the deficit in the final months of the year.

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