Kirkuk reverts to Baghdad, Kurds in disarray

TURKEY - In Brief 16 Oct 2017 by Atilla Yesilada

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The disputed Iraqi city of Kirkuk rapidly fell to Iraqi Army, as Kurdish peshmerga forces withdrew after putting up symbolic resistance. It appears that divisions between deceased national hero Mr. Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) tacitly cooperating with the approaching Iraqi Army, abandoning their positions and president Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) played a role in the collapse of peshmerga defense. The absence of bloodshed during the fall of Kirkuk and preservation of Iraq’s territorial integrity are important positives in the regional geo-political heat map, but this crisis is far from over. It now moves to Iraqi Kurdistan and to Turkey. First, the liberator of Kirkuk, Iraqi Army was accompanied by Shia paramilitaries, called Hashdi Shaabi, accused of ethnic cleansing in other cities populated by Sunnis. Their aversion to Kurds is well-known. There is also a lot of bad blood between Kurds and Turkmenis in Kirkuk. An all-out settling of old accounts can’t be ruled out, which would push Kurdish refugees to the North, further weakening the Barzani administration, as well as prove my main thesis that the Shia-dominated central government will give no quarter to minorities. Secondly, the “treason” by PUK and the loss of Kirkuk, a holy city for Kurds is almost certain to destabilize the Barzani government, and the Kurdish region at large, where prolonged power struggles, merrily provoked by Turkey, Baghdad and Iran are very likely. Turkey’s nemesis PKK is almost certain to exploit the chaos to strengthen its position and vie for influence with legal parties. Third, cut off from Kirkuk oilfields and soon to be deprived of customs revenues from ...