KONDA poll shakes markets

TURKEY - In Brief 21 May 2015 by Atilla Yesilada
For right or wrong, the KONDA polling and market research agency is considered the most accurate among poll watchers. Today’s afternoon sell-off is not related to American first claims data, as widely reported in Turkish financial press or some investment banking commentary but the release (for paying clients only) of May KONDA poll which finds the following results: AKP: 40.5 CHP: 28.7 MHP: 14.4 HDP: 11.5 KONDA refuses to comment on its own polls, but the results are reported in BloombergHT by Mr. Kerim Karakaya, a personal friend for whose honesty I can vouch. I can’t tell you KONDA is much better than the average of others, but these results-- if true-- are devastating to market confidence. Not only has HDP a very good chance of making it to the parliament, but AKP has almost no chance of securing enough seats to form a single party government. Yet, I don’t think the market will forever stay depressed by the results of just one poll, no matter how good a track record it might have. Here are the May Metropoll Agency results. Metropoll in my view is also fairly reliable: AKP: 42.8 CHP: 27.0 MHP: 17.1 HDP: 9.2 Here, the conclusions are exactly the opposite of KONDA. HDP fails to qualify for the Grand Assembly, while AKP secures a very thin majority. I don’t want to overanalyze the results of just two polls, but in my view the market overbought the scenario of AKP being awarded a small majority with not enough seats to call a referendum on the executive presidency. As KONDA and Metropoll suggest other and less market friendly outcomes are distinct possibilities.

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