Korean or Finland scenario for Ukraine? No Gordian knot solution in sight.

UKRAINE - In Brief 27 Dec 2024 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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Foreign Affairs recently published an excellent article titled 'A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine' by Samuel Charap. I would like to react to it. The comment by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that 'a ceasefire is a road to nowhere' aligns closely with the perspective Samuel Charap, a Distinguished Chair at the RAND Corporation, presents in his piece. I think the most important part of the text is this: “…U.S. leverage with Russia and Ukraine is significant, but not so much so as to force either of them to take what they see as a bad deal since both see the issues at stake as existential or near existential.” I want to draw attention to two points that foreign observers often overlook. The first is that while U.S. influence on both Russia and Ukraine in this war is substantial, it is not conclusive. This situation is not comparable to the Korean War, where American soldiers were on the ground, and U.S. authorities could end the fighting by issuing commands to their troops. The second point is that both sides view this war as 'existential or near-existential,' not merely a border conflict, as Western media often simplifies it in their publications. These two factors, among others, make reaching a potential peace deal incredibly complex. Samuel Charap rightly emphasizes that any de-escalation (if it does occur) will be a slow and time-consuming process. A simplistic, rushed approach is bound to fail. Against this backdrop, I need to explain why Russians perceive this war as near-existential for themselves (I assume it is clear why this war is existential for Ukraine). In the Russian Empire (and later the USSR), Ukrainians were consistently regarded as an inferior nati...