KUWAIT: New parliament seems more oppositional, but will pass debt law
* It was a rare achievement for the outgoing parliament to complete a four-year term.
* The newly elected parliament looks more oppositional, although many new MPs are relative unknowns, given a 62% turnover.
* The picture should become clearer in the upcoming vote for a speaker on December 15.
* Significantly, the opposition candidate for speaker has advocated fiscal reforms.
* A new cabinet will form in the next few days, and the finance minister may be replaced.
* With accessible reserves running low, MPs will see a debt law as the least bad option, and Kuwait will issue bonds in Q1.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Kuwait’s election is that it happened at the end of the National Assembly’s four-year term. This is the first time since 2003 that this has happened, a period that has seen eight different parliaments. The turnover in cabinets, which form following elections but can also change within the term of a parliament, has been even greater. There have been 18 cabinets since 2003 (including three during the term of the previous parliament), with an average lifespan of less than a year, half as long as in the 20th century.
This volatility contrasts sharply with Kuwait’s Gulf neighbors, whose monarchies enable ministers and entire cabinets to remain in place for long periods, ensuring continuity and facilitating long-term planning. An extreme example is Bahrain’s prime minister, who died last month, having been in office for half a century. Since 2003, Kuwait has had 10 finance ministers, and may soon get an 11th. In this time, the UAE has had the same minister, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have had two each, Bahrain and Oman three each. So nearly half of the GCC finance ministers in the 21st century have been Kuwaiti.
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