Politics: Landslide Sheinbaum and Morena victory, as a greatly weakened opposition strives to avoid an incumbent supermajority in Congress
Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in this month’s presidential election had been expected, although few anticipated the almost 60% share of the vote she attained. The Morena-led coalition’s presidential vote grew by almost seven million while the opposition appears to have lost 2.7 million votes.
Also surprising was the extent of the huge margin of victory with which Morena and its allies won not only the presidency, but also 7 out of the 9 governorships on the ballot. But most shocking, was its sweep of the congressional legislative elections, which may ultimately deliver them qualified majorities in both chambers, thereby raising the specter of AMLO passing his "Plan C" reforms before leaving office September 30.
A number of factors help to explain this outcome, starting with the extent to which substantial wage and job growth, cash transfer social programs and remittance inflows contributed to an enhanced sense of well-being that increased the President’s approval ratings.
The 2024 elections are far from over as the full vote-count process and the sorting of legal challenges in specific races will not conclude until the eve of the initial session of the new Congress, September 1. During that time, a major fight will be waged over efforts by the incumbents to artificially magnify the over-representation assigned to the winning party coalition beyond 8%.
This week, in our first balance sheet of the election results, we analyze the reasons for the incumbent coalition’s landslide victory, which has left Morena and its allies with a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and within striking distance of a similar supermajority in the Senate by luring three senators-elect from greatly debilitated opposition parties to cross the proverbial aisle.
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