LAST MINUTE: Aksener pulls out of the Nation Alliance

TURKEY - In Brief 03 Mar 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’m not in the business of sharing breaking news with our audience, but this is so important that I decided to do so before I can gather my head and come up with a conclusion about election scenarios. After a six-hour meeting on Thursday it looked like the six leaders of the Nation Alliance had agreed on a single name to contest the presidential elections. In fact, a joint declaration said exactly so without naming the candidate, but promised another announcement on Monday. Immediately afterwards, Aksener gathered not only the main administrative councils of her party but the provincial party chiefs, too, to discuss the emerging inevitability: The other leaders had firmly agreed on Kemal Kilicdaroglu. A few minutes ago, she made a scathing statement about the rest of the rest of the Nation Alliance, accusing the parties having lost their capacity “to represent the will of the nation”. I’m sure she is now out of the Nation Alliance. The severity of her accusations makes it impossible for the parties to cooperate on other matters such as fielding joint rosters at the district level to overcome AKP’s largest-party advantage. To make matters worse, she called upon CHP mayors Imamoglu and Yavas to “heed the nation’s call” and run for president. I doubt either will accept the invitation, but a resignation by Yavas is a possibility. How will Aksener’s departure from the Nation Alliance affect my election scenarios? Clearly, this unexpected development hands Erdogan and Bahceli a tremendous psychological victory, as well as reinforcing the belief that the opposition is incapable of dealing with the challenges of governing Turkey. I need a week or so to construct new scenarios,...