Last words before the referendum

TURKEY - In Brief 12 Apr 2017 by Atilla Yesilada

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First, I’ll be a holding a conference call with Global Source Partners audience Wednesday afternoon 10 am U.S. Eastern Standard Time, I encourage all readers to participate to receive a broader update and commentary on today’s developments. (Pls consult our New York head office for details). We won’t be publishing a Weekly on Sunday, but I’ll update readers on Sunday night, as results come through. Since our last writing, three more polls appeared in the media, all of which give the YES camp a 2-3 point edge. Incorporating these into our poll-of-polls table, lifts average YES support only to 50.11%. While statistically speaking, Sunday’s race is still a coin flip; over the last two weeks YES votes rose visibly, even in one which was conducted by center-left Gezici agency. Konsensus polling agency, which I consider impartial even if not too accurate, reports 6% of undecideds and “won’t mention his/her choice” in its sample. ANAR, center-right but usually impartial, too, makes reference to a large number of “shy voters” who won’t speak out their preferences, which means this race is still wide open. AKP’s ongoing large-scale rallies, new pork-barreling efforts and the extra-acerbic rhetoric by Erdogan, too, suggest the comfort margin about a victory in AKP camp is low. With a 40% probability YES camp can still lose, in which case pro-AKP commentators fear of a global undertaking to undermine Erdogan for 2019 elections, the stakes are very high for AKP. Voting and counting irregularities will be monitored very closely. In case of a very narrow YES victory, I remain wary of either the opposition, or Turkey’s allies such as Brussels challenging the fairness of the vote. My ...