Latest developments in Turkey

TURKEY - In Brief 20 Jul 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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Once again I use the opportunity of questions posed by one reader to inform our audience about the developments in Turkey. The gist my message is that normalization is long way off and the economic spill-over effects are increasing by the day. Question: Does Erdogan have full control of the armed forces now? In other words, what we are trying to figure is whether or not he still needs popular and opposition support to keep the army in check or if he already has the army in check, then he may rule more autocratically and destructively. Answer: Erdogan doesn’t have the full control of the Army. According to two confessions, up to 60-70% of the officers might have some links to the Gulen Order. The Chiefs of Staff and the backbone are loyal to the constitutional order but it will take time to separate the wheat from the chaff. Regarding AKP’s choice about how to govern, the ongoing meeting of National Security Council and later the Cabinet is crucial. Some kind of watered-down Martial Law might be announced, or the Cabinet might ask the parliament for authority to govern by decree, which would increase the sense unease across the nation and concern among our international partners. Already, the 55K detentions and relegations to passive duty or suspensions suggest that AKP had a massive crack-down planned and the coup attempt gave it the perfect excuse to expedite it and execute it in one fell swoop. Yet I'm not willing to commit myself to the case that we’ll face a more repressive AKP in the coming days. PM Yildirim has been reaching out to the opposition and the media and in general striking a conciliatory posture. I think we need to wait another week or so to find out w...