Politics: Latest poll numbers show Gálvez failing to expand support even as the incumbent camp weakens

MEXICO - Report 29 Apr 2024 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

The latest GEA-ISA survey of registered voters contained some encouraging news for the opposition coalition. Support for Morena dropped by as much as 8 points between March and April. President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen 12 points since September to one of his lowest readings in office, a problem for Morena nominee Sheinbaum, whose popularity is highly dependent on that of her mentor. In contrast, support for the PAN recovered to its strongest level since López Obrador took office, although that for its main partner (PRI) broke below 10%, an all time low. We see similar numbers with regard to how people are inclined to vote at this point in the presidential and congressional contests. But despite numerous setbacks suffered by the incumbent camp, Xóchitl Gálvez has failed to grow her support, leaving her trailing the frontrunner by 15 points (17 excluding undecided voters) with roughly a month of campaigning and two debates to go.

A question remains: why, if AMLO's popularity has dropped 5 points and pro-Morena voting intentions in the presidential race have fallen eight points, has support for candidate Sheinbaum only narrowed 3 points? Could it be there is a hidden vote in the form of interviewees, who out of fear of retribution falsely claim that they will give their vote to Sheinbaum?

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