Lenin Moreno leads electoral polls

ECUADOR - In Brief 22 Mar 2017 by Magdalena Barreiro

Four pollsters published electoral forecasts yesterday and all of them give an advantage to the official candidate Lenin Moreno that is around 4% to 5% of valid votes. The trend, however, seems to favor Moreno which makes it quite difficult for Lasso to turn this result around. On average they place Lasso with around 47.5% of valid votes while Moreno would reach 51.5%.These results show a clear and dramatic polarization of the the electorate in Ecuador --a situation which in numbers is similar to what happened in Peru, but from the point of view of ideology is closer to the Argentinian case since Lasso and Moreno represent quite opposite points of view on the economic management, division of powers, institutional strength and freedom of speech. However, Alianza Pais already has 75 out of 132 legislators in the Assembly which gives them the absolute majority albeit not the 2/3 as they had before. Therefore, governance is not going to be as easy as it was before even for the official candidate and the Ecuadorian democracy might face further challenges.

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