Life in the carry trade haven
The domestic political agenda is becoming more fragmented by the day, as President Erdogan fails to act decisively to mobilize his party and the media to guide the discussion in the direction of his strengths. The post-election polls largely reveal Ozel and CHP retaining their popularity, which compels Erdogan to negotiate. The first round will take place some day in June, when Erdogan visits Ozel, but a serious give-and-take may be delayed until the final months of the year. It is important to note that Ozel may bring up early elections during the second half of 2025 and has some leverage to force Erdogan’s hand.
The essays of the politics author have become circular, as it has become increasingly difficult to separate cause from effect in the political arena. It is certain AKP and MHP are wrestling for influence at various fronts, but Erdogan’s ultimate objective might be to moderate Bahceli’s red lines, rather than abandon him.
In this tug of war, to recall, Bahceli won the first round fought over Osman Kavala and incarcerated Kurdish politicians. The battleground now shifted to Mafia and political murders. This feature of Turkish politics may become more or less permanent, as long as Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya retains his post.
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