London business trip impressions by Atilla Yesilada

TURKEY - In Brief 25 Sep 2024 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’ve toured London-based financial institutions last week for three days, when I met 27 different companies. I asked Global Source Partners NYC to organize this tour, because I had an important message to share: Turkey is more likely than not heading for an early ballot by year-end 2025, give and take a few months. Of course, such a scenario immediately triggers questions about the fate of Mehmet Simsek’s Economic Stabilization Program (ESP), and the Strong TL Policy. My scenario of early elections was met with little enthusiasm with the notable exception of two meetings, where participants stated they, too, are discussing the topic internally. For what it is worth, here is my thesis: Erdogan wants to be re-elected, but he is not eligible to run once again. E.g. he must retire by May 2028 elections. There are two “paths” to re-gain eligibility. The first is a new constitution, for which there is no appetite whatsoever. The second path is the Turkish parliament voting for early elections. Main opposition (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel issued an ultimatum to Erdogan to the effect that his party will not vote for any election bill after November 2025. I had lengthy discussions with two institutions about the constitutional change, which requires 360 votes. AKP-MHP and their smaller partner Huda-Par have only 320 seats. I’ll skip the details of this “path”, because recruiting 40 congresspeople or convincing any of the opposition parties for a new constitution does not sound feasible at this juncture. On the other hand, AKP plus CHP have 394 seats vs 360, also required to legislate early elections. The push-back I received most frequently is why Erdogan would risk elections at suc...