Losing sheen

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 10 Nov 2017 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

Economic outlooks appear to have turned less rosy these days.All eyes are on the tax reform package in congress and the question in many people’s minds is how the economic team will decide potentially hard policy choices should congress pass a tax bill that yields inadequate revenues. This, together with a politically-noisy climate that amplifies investment risks, will affect private sector activity which is already showing signs of slackening and keeps us from raising our 6.3% GDP forecast for 2018. Macroeconomic policy-wise, we expect the expansionary impact of fiscal policy to dominate probable policy interest rate hikes on the monetary side.Internal and external risks to our forecast are titled to the downside​.

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