Lower-than-budgeted revenue for the first two quarters, the search for independent presidential hopefuls begins, and the populist approach to the social crisis continues at a slower pace
The fiscal balance for the NFPS during the first six months of the year showed an increase in revenue in real terms and reductions in current and investment expenditure, also in real terms, compared with 2021. Current savings were negative (0.35% of GDP) but better than the -0.8% of last year. The primary balance came with a deficit of 1.67% of GDP. The MEF calculates the quarterly deficit ratios for the Central Government and the NFPS as a fraction of the estimated nominal GDP for the entire year. However, doubling the figures to project the deficit for the complete 2022 is inaccurate because in the last quarter of each year, the ACP transfers its profits to the Central Government, estimated at about 3.3% for this year. We do not anticipate any major difficulty in complying with the 4% ceiling for this year.
The draft budget presented by MEF on July 31 complied with the Fiscal Law for 2022 and 2023 (4.0% and 3.0% after the "adjustment" that might be made for the payments by Minera Panama when the legislature approves the new contract). Below the line, the NFPS will test the market for US 4,868 million next year (US 4,666 million in foreign debt), 13.7% more than in 2022 if Minera Panama’s contract is approved. Amortizations will be US 2,129 million, or US 420 million more than in 2021. The draft does not reflect the promised reduction of the size of the government, as requested by the opposition.
Thirty-four independent candidates for president started the process last week of collecting the approximately 40,000 signatures necessary to qualify for the 2024 election. The three independent pre-candidates with the greatest number of signatures by July 31, 2023, could run for president in 2024, joining the candidates selected in the compulsory primaries of the nine registered parties, plus three parties in the process of registration.
The People's Alliance is complaining that most of the promises emanating from the bilateral discussions in the dialogue of Penonomé are ineffective, accusing the private sector of boycotting the results. The Mesa ended its first phase on Saturday, August 13, when the Catholic Church decided to step aside. Corruption and the proposals for its elimination are now the main topic of discussion in the next phase of a dialogue/monologue that is losing its initial strength.
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