Macri’s surprising election

ARGENTINA - Report 27 Oct 2015 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano

The very close results of the presidential election between the official candidate, Scioli, and its main contester, Macri, from the opposition alliance Cambiemos, represented a positive surprise for the market and a painful reality-check for the government.

Scioli managed to gather 36.9% of the votes while Macri achieved 34.3%. The current governor of the province of Buenos Aires did therefore not only miss the 40% hurdle rate, but also managed just a 2.6p.p lead to his run up. This is a significantly worse result than previously expected. According to the polls, Scioli was projected to obtain on average 39.6% of the voters’ support, compared to just 28.7% for Macri.

After adjusting our second round election projections, which we presented in previous reports, by incorporating the results of this last presidential elections instead of the primaries, we see a large probability that Macri may beat Scioli in the ballotage on November 22nd. Of course, our base case scenario still assumes that Macri eventually gets the support from the third candidate, Sergio Massa, and his party, UNA.

Now read on...

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