March Madness

TURKEY - Report 04 Mar 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary March Madness took start with daily releases of audio recordings suggesting that Erdogan and his family are taking bribes. The tensions will escalate through the month, though we have very little evidence to measure how much the voter sentiment is affected. AKP should win by a 41%-44% of the national vote, but that outcome would not suffice to intimidate the Gulen Movement or end the question of presidential elections. AKP will face severe economic and socio-political headwinds going into the presidential elections.Thus, we assign only 60% chance of Gul or Erdogan winning ...

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