Martinelli's political fate and debt sustainability analysis: both with implications for 2024

PANAMA - Report 30 Jan 2024 by Marco Fernandez

Ricardo Martinelli faces the outcome of his appeal in the corruption case against him. Media and analysts are speculating about the date of the Supreme Court decision, likely confirming the guilty verdict.

We conducted a debt sustainability analysis aiming to estimate the level of primary balance that the NFPS must achieve in 2024 in order to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio stable at its 2023 level. The results indicate that to sustain the estimated the debt ratio for 2023 (57.1% of GDP), a primary surplus of 1% is required in 2024, amounting to US$863 million, whereas our projections show a primary deficit.

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