May CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 9.2% in 1Q24, Azerbaijan and Georgia stick with rate cuts, Uzbekistan's CPI jumps on higher utility tariffs, Tajikistan grows by 8.3% in 1Q

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - Report 31 May 2024 by Ivan Tchakarov

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in May:

Armenia: GDP expands by 9.2% YoY in 1Q
Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slows to 10.4% YoY in Apr
Armenia: Deflation lingers on in Apr
Armenia: Budget posts small deficit in 1Q24
Armenia: Foreign reserves decrease to US$3.29bn in Mar
Armenia: Public debt inches up in 1Q24
Armenia: REER strengthens in Mar
Armenia: Net remittances increased in Mar MoM
Armenia: EBRD forecasts 6.2% GDP growth in 2024
Armenia: Archbishop Galstanyan emerges as opposition nominee for PM
Armenia: Archbishop Galstanyan more popular than PM Pashinyan
Armenia: Armenian border troops take over border protection in Tavush region
Azerbaijan: CBA cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 7.25%
Azerbaijan: Central Bank Governor sees 2024 GDP growth at 3.5-4.0%
Azerbaijan: Government ups 2024 GDP forecast
Azerbaijan: GDP grows by 4.3% over Jan-Apr
Azerbaijan: Inflation is flat in Apr
Azerbaijan: Budget surplus amounts to AZN 2.5bn during Jan-Apr
Azerbaijan: Real incomes post slightly decelerating growth in Jan-Apr
Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan considers increasing its external public debt to USD 10bn
Azerbaijan: FX reserves broadly constant in Apr
Azerbaijan: Energy production inches down in Apr
Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan exports 2.1cm of gas in Apr
Azerbaijan: EIA forecasts oil production of 610,000 bpd in 2024
Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan may hold early parliamentary elections
Georgia: NBG cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 8.0%
Georgia: Inflation increases by 1.5% YoY in Apr
Georgia: PPI accelerates to 5.9% YoY in Apr
Georgia: FX reserves increase to US$4.81bn in Apr
Georgia: NBG continued with regular FX purchases in Apr
Georgia: NBG intervenes twice in May to stem lari volatility
Georgia: NBG Governor sees lari weakening as a one-off emotional reaction
Georgia: REER broadly flat in Apr
Georgia: Parliament overrides President's veto on Transparency Law
Georgia: EU considers sanctions for adopting the Transparency Law
Uzbekistan: CPI inches up to 8.1% YoY in April
Uzbekistan: Inflation expectations jump in Apr
Uzbekistan: Higher gas and electricity tariffs to add 2.4% to headline inflation
Uzbekistan: GDP grows by 6.2% YoY in 1Q24
Uzbekistan: Gas production declines in Apr
Uzbekistan: Russia intends to significantly increase gas supplies to Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan: Trade deficit widens to US$1.1bn in Apr
Uzbekistan: FX reserves rise to US$35.1bn in Apr
Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan still largest seller of gold in the world in Mar
Uzbekistan: Republican budget deficit amounts to UZS 7.2tr in Apr
Uzbekistan: Industrial production stabilizes in Apr
Uzbekistan: Parliamentary elections to be held in 2024
Tajikistan: Inflation remains contained at 3.4% YoY in Apr
Tajikistan: GDP grows by 8.2% in 1Q24
Tajikistan: Russia and Tajikistan create representative office of Russian MIA in Dushanbe

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