Medina faces his first big political defeat
President Danilo Medina is about to receive his first major political defeat. The effort to pass the bill on political parties most favorable to him (with open and simultaneous primaries) is failing. Medina could not get enough votes to pass the bill in the House. Nearly all the opposition, and the PLD wing led by Leonel Fernández, comprising about half of the votes in the House, stood against him. As the bill required two thirds of the vote, it failed. This not only prevented Medina from gaining more control over internal PLD elections, but indicates that he lacks the votes to pass a constitutional amendment that would allow him to run for another term.
As we’ve written, there was little chance of getting this Congress to pass a good law on political parties, one that would guarantee internal democracy, transparency and clean finances. The Senate bill as approved is weak in those three areas, because the leadership of the parties and most members of Congress would hardly support a law that would mean their ceding power.
Rather, the entire debate over the law of parties has focused on the system of electing candidates. The two alternatives proposed have been: a) closed primaries: organized by the parties themselves, with an internal electoral registry of the parties, and only those previously registered as party members could vote, and b) open primaries: held simultaneously for all parties, organized by the electoral board, and open to all voters.
The Senate, thanks to an intense effort by Medina, approved option b, but in the House, the opposition and Fernandez blocked the bill. This apparent defeat for Medina made it clear that Fernandez has the best chance of becoming the PLD presidential nominee. But that is still too early to call.
The PRM, the main opposition party, continues to exercise weak opposition. It emerged unharmed from its recent convention to elect party authorities, and managed to renew its leadership, with young and very promising figures.
Economic activity expanded notably in April, reversing, perhaps temporarily, the slowdown seen since January. The IMAE grew by 7.5%. We expect to see growth rates fall below that of January-April, to the extent that high oil prices are already having an impact, and as monetary policy returns to normality, and interest rates climb.
Inflation continues to be under control and within the target of the monetary program range (4.0% ± 1.0%). In April it was 0.4%, bringing cumulative inflation to 0.95%, and annualized inflation to 4.05%.
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