Mexico Macro Monitor: Pemex Q1 2025: Financial Results and Oil&Gas Production Decline Continues; Marginal Improvement in Refining

MEXICO - In Brief 01 May 2025 by Mariano Ruiz-Funes
In the first quarter of 2025, Pemex reported mixed operational results. On one hand, liquid hydrocarbon production fell by 11.3% compared to the same period in 2024, natural gas output declined by 8.7%, and crude oil exports dropped by 22.8%. On the other hand, the refining segment showed modest improvement compared to Q4 2024, though annual growth rates remained negative: crude processing decreased by 5% year-over-year (January–March 2025 vs. 2024), and refined products and petrochemical output fell by 9.3%. However, the share of fuel oil (which has no market outside CFE) in the production mix shrank. This led to a 20% annual reduction in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel imports—though these still cover nearly half of domestic demand, even with the supposed operational start of the new Dos Bocas refinery. The marginal refining gains failed to offset financial losses. In fact, the more refined products Pemex produces, the greater its financial losses—highlighting structural inefficiencies in its downstream operations. CHART 1 PEMEX: Operational Results, 2024-2025 Source: Data FxRates®. Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados In January–March 2025, Pemex reported a net loss of 43.3 billion pesos (MXN), a reversal from the 4.7 billion pesos profit recorded in the same period of 2024. Excluding exchange rate fluctuations, the loss stood at 28 billion pesos, similar to the 28.7 billion pesos loss a year earlier. Documented supplier debt rose to 404.4 billion pesos, up from 364.8 billion pesos in Q1 2024—though it decreased 20% from year-end 2024. Pemex also owes suppliers for works already completed but not yet invoiced. While the exact amount is unknown, industry sour...

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