Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption in February posts a third consecutive annual decline

MEXICO - In Brief 06 May 2025 by Francisco González

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Private consumption through February: Third consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, alongside persistent weakness in spending on domestic goods. Private consumption fell by -0.7% YoY in February 2025, marking the third consecutive decline after a slowdown trend began in August of last year. As a result, the January-February 2025 period accumulated an average annual contraction of -1.6%. While growth in 2023 and the first half of 2024 had been concentrated in imported goods, these began to slow as of July 2024 due to exchange rate depreciation, sustaining consecutive and significant declines since December of last year. Domestic goods consumption posted weak annual growth of 0.8%, following two consecutive drops and remaining practically stagnant in 2024 (averaging 0.2% YoY). In the January-February 2025 average, this category recorded an annual decline of -0.7%. GRAPH 1 Private consumption by type and origin, February 2025 (Annual % change) Source: Data FxRates® & INEGI, Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados. Spending on services also showed weakness, growing by just 1.0% YoY in February—about half the 2024 average. Household spending on services rose 1.0% year-over-year in February, continuing a deceleration trend in the first two months of the year after growing 2.0% in all of 2024. In contrast to the annual decline of the private consumption index, there was a significant seasonally adjusted monthly increase of 1.2%, driven by higher consumption of both imported (2.7%) and domestic (2.1%) goods. However, this reflects more the fact that January’s consumption was particularly weak rather than a recovery. Private c...