Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures

MEXICO - In Brief 30 Apr 2025 by Francisco González
Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening services According to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point below the 2024 average (1.5%). The agricultural sector grew by 6.0 YoY after a -4.0% drop in the previous quarter, continuing with significant volatility since 2023, when a drought hit key production zones. This sector remains at high risk of being affected if the U.S. imposes more tariffs, as was the case with tomatoes and other products that may be added to the list. The secondary sector fell -1.4% YoY in Q1, following a -2.0% decline in the previous quarter and stagnation throughout 2024. This is due to weak manufacturing growth (0.3% YoY in January-February) and a contraction in construction in January, with only marginal recovery in February (based on IGAE data). GRAPH 1 GDP and main sectors (Seasonally adjusted % chg.YoY) Source: Data FxRates® & INEGI, Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados. Tertiary sector growth was nearly one point below 2024 average. The services sector grew 1.3% YoY (seasonally adjusted), one percentage point lower than both the previous quarter and the full-year 2024 average (2.3% in both cases). Recent weakness stems from reduced household spending on services—particularly leisure, restaurants, and hotels—along with declines in transportation, warehousing, and wholesale trade. On a quarterly basis (seasonally adjusted), GDP rose 0.2%, driven by a sharp rebound in the primary sector (8.1%). Meanwhile, industry fell -0.3%, and services showed...

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