Politics: Mexico to face numerous unprecedented challenges in the event Trump takes power next January
The fundamental idea underlying the relationship between Mexico and the United States over the last three or four decades held that the two countries need one another, with both approaching bilateral relations as complementary partners. The high probability of Donald Trump's return to the White House would almost certainly put an end to that understanding, with potentially devastating consequences for the US’s southern neighbor and prime trade partner. It is an understatement to affirm that Mexico is the country with the highest risk of negative impacts, as The Economist’s “Trump Risk Index: The global impact of a new US presidency” concluded.
Trump made Mexico one of his prime targets during his 2016 campaign and eventual presidency. But this time the potential economic impact would extend well beyond tariffs and a review of USMCA clauses Washington settled for. The Trump campaign has already announced new provisions directed at Mexico, such as a demand that Mexico prohibit Chinese investments within its borders while the US would ban the import of products from Chinese companies based on Mexican soil, a move that would put the Mexican government in a dilemma in terms of its relationship with China and, more broadly, its geopolitical positioning. Although a Republican administration would minimize the importance of the energy transition and the use of clean energy, Mexico could see curbs on investments associated with electric cars (the heightened uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s plans to build a major plant in Monterrey is symptomatic). And the Republican nominee has made a point of emphasizing his intention to conduct unilateral military interventions into Mexico.
This week we analyze the numerous fronts on which Mexico could be impacted, from trade, to migration, security and economic policy.
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