Mid-week review in Turkish politics

TURKEY - In Brief 14 May 2014 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkish government declared three days of national mourning as the death toll in the Soma coal mine accident reached 205. I fear it may reach as high as 450. Was this a genuine “act of God”? Or the result of careless privatization and deregulation in the mining industry? While the debate is already joined, I hesitate to rush to judgment. As callous it may sound at a time like this I doubt the findings would have significant impact on AKP’s performance in the upcoming presidential elections. Apropos, presidential elections, as yet another unforgettable date in the Turkish political history approaches, there is little that may move the markets one way or the other. Erdogan is yet to declare his candidacy, which suggests that succession and coordination questions have not been sorted out. To remind our investors and to answer a FAQ, Erdogan can run without resigning his post as PM and shall safely retain it if he loses the race. Neither has the opposition made any headways in identifying its champions, but a new idea by MHP may marginally increase its collective chances. MHP leader Bahceli offered to nominate a joint candidate who will not necessarily run against Erdogan, but against the idea of a strong presidency. In other words, the yet-to-be named person will be independent, impartial and miles removed from the daily politics of Turkey, while promising not to interfere with the Cabinet. CHP stated it is interested in exploring this venue further. Kurds, on the other hand, have not received any response from AKP to their demands, and insist on nominating their own candidate. A first round victory for Erdogan looks elusive though in the second round he is still the unqu...