​Mind the S-400s!

TURKEY - In Brief 04 Apr 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

---

It isnot only the recount of votes in Istanbul and now in Ankara that investors should watch closely to judge Erdogan’s future course of action and market response, but rapidly escalating S-400 tensions, too.The twin troubles are juxtaposed on a very shaky currency defended by rapidly evaporating CBRT F/X reserves, which increases the likelihood of a severe currency shock. The recount of votes in Istanbul and Ankara based on AKP appeals is not out-of-the-ordinary, in the sense that in the past CHP had lodged similar ones. What makes this case is unique is a very loud propaganda campaignin pro-AKP press to portray the elections as being manipulated by Gulenists and “Western Powers”, or Ust Akıl in Turkish lingo (the Uber-mind). These concerted efforts suggest to the opposition that Erdogan is trying to win what he lost at the ballot with pressure on the High Election Council (HEC). Indeed, if pro-opposition news outlets are correct, so far partial recounts in several Istanbul boroughs have not yielded any material changes to the initial tallies reported early Monday morning. I rely on opposition sources, because pro-AKP sources fail to cite any specific figures in their coverage, simply claiming that “the difference has narrowed”.My understanding of the process is the appeals filtering up from borough Election Councils all the way to HEC, the verdict of which may take place as late as next Wednesday. Each passing day increases the atmosphere of hostility and paranoia in the country, as well drawing international reminders of respecting the wishes of voters to Erdogan. My best guess about this AKP campaign is one of little Erdogan commitment to alter results (meaning he ...