Mining reopening and Canal projects to drive growth, with inflation near zero, unemployment high and fiscal compliance dependent on a land sale to the ACP

PANAMA - Forecast 16 Jan 2026 by Marco Fernandez

We project real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027. The sharp acceleration in 2027 is based on the possible reopening of the copper mine at Donoso and the start of large Canal-related investment projects that we have reported on previously. Donoso is in the legal planning phase, while the ACP projects are in the operational and financial planning stage. The MEF announced an agreement to sell national land to the ACP for the construction of two seaports, although the value of the deal is yet to be published. Exports will accelerate because of additional copper sales, as well as the expected boom in tourism and air transportation.

In this report, we also discuss recent domestic and international political events and review the importance of Venezuela to different sectors of the Panamanian economy.

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