Mir blow, Mersin terror strike

TURKEY - In Brief 28 Sep 2022 by Atilla Yesilada

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I wish to apologize to our readers for posting this Market Brief at a very inconvenient hour, but lately we have been blessed by an abundance of international visitors and information requests, which keeps me busy all day. I can say without exaggeration that this is the highest interest in Turkish affairs I’ve experienced since the 2019 municipal elections. And, the interest is highly warranted, because “Everything, everywhere all, at once” in Turkey (a movie you should definitely see, link here). I can write about a dozen more subjects, such as the formation of a new left-wing political alliance under the leadership of pro-Kurdish Rights party HDP, endless commentary on frictions among Table of Six member parties, coupled with an equal dose of strife rumors within AKP, and so on and so forth. But, I chose to focus on two developments which I believe serve as “signs of things to come”. The first is Erdogan being forced to pull out three state banks from Russian-operated Mir payments system under immense pressure from US—according to Kremlin sources. I’m still trying to figure out whether Mir can be used for B2B transactions, but even if it isn’t, the decision is a blow to Erdogan’s presumed plans to draw in Russian business in return for buying cheap natural gas from Russia. At the very least, Russian tourists still in Turkey and planning to visit for the rest of the year are cut off from credit card usage. I understand there is rather significant number of small Russian businesses setting up shop in Turkey to trade freely with EU which are also possibly cut off from an effective means of payment processing. Erdogan’s spokespeople immediately announced that the Palace ...