Monetary Policy on the High Wire

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Jul 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

There was a good deal of suspense regarding the minutes of the last COPOM meeting. Since inflation continues hovering near the top of the target interval and there are substantial repressed pressures both from the temporary stability of the real and delayed adjustments of administered prices, it would be a mistake to reduce the SELIC rate. But economic growth has been decelerating, this is an election year and the Central Bank has been sending clear signals that it accepts higher inflation than the official target. For these reasons, the market believed the COPOM minutes could open the door to a reduction of the interest rate.

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