Monetary stimulus and land sales

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 07 Dec 2018 by Andrew Collier

China has witnessed a significant increase in unsuccessful land auctions in 2018. The rate for the top Tier 1 and 2 cities rose to 6.4 percent in 7M 2018 from 5.7 percent in 2017. In this report, we ask the question – what types of credit are linked to the success or failure of land auctions? And what does this mean for monetary policy going forward?

This question is important because land is a key source of revenue for local governments. The connection between credit to the economy and land is an important indicator of China’s economic health. Credit flows are also an early indicator of problems in China’s land market, and by extension, property.

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