​More questions about Turkey’s politics

TURKEY - In Brief 15 Jun 2015 by Atilla Yesilada

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Once again I want to use the opportunity of astute questions asked by a reader to share my views with the entire readership. As usual the name of the inquirer shall remain anonymous. · Can the president block formation of a non-AKP minority government easily, even if AKP does not have enough votes for a motion of no confidence? CHP wants exactly such a government, that is a CHP minority government supported on a specific topic basis by MHP and HDP. Leaving aside the feasibility issue, the only way the president can block its formation is by refusing to appoint CHP leader Kilicdaroglu as PM-designate which would amount to a suspension of the constitutional rules in Turkey. Today he said he will give the job to Kilicdaroglu if Davutoglu fails, but then use his authority to disband the parliament and call early elections. · How likely is a snap election? Is it the president’s key goal? I think Erdogan sees no downside in snap elections, as it stands in the current situation his life-long ambition of a strong presidency is dead. I can’t assign probabilities to such an eventuality, though, before CHP leader meets MHP leader Bahceli. I am 80% sure that none of the three opposition parties would jump in bed with AKP unless Erdogan is muzzled. HDP can be persuaded to support a CHP government, but MHP refuses to be in any alliance where the word “HDP" is mentioned. Just how strict Bahceli’s red lines can only be discerned after the initial summit. But early elections are a distinct possibility; certainly they command higher odds than the markets seem to assign to them at this juncture, my gut tells me. · Is it AKP leadership’s (outside of the president) favored solution? No, th...