Economics: More studies needed for the Maya Train
The Maya Train project that Andrés Manuel López Obrador promised during the campaign and has since greatly expanded would pass through five states in Mexico’s southeast: Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Chiapas, Tabasco and Campeche. It is being projected primarily as a way to encourage more tourists to venture farther from the Caribbean beaches of Quintana Roo, toward more distant colonial towns, as well as cultural and natural attractions including massive Mayan archeological sites.
Benefits could include regional development, a considerable economic spillover effect, reduced travel times and transportation costs, and assuming the right precautions are taken with its design and construction, it could prove more environmentally friendly than existing transportation options.
The president-elect promises he will deliver the 1,500 km of track and installations for no more than 8 billion dollars, and that he will open the bidding his first day in office this December. But there are numerous considerations regarding the train’s viability. Fortunately the incoming administration can rely in part on studies conducted at the outset of the current administration, which had announced a similar yet less extensive rail project that it ultimately left on hold. However, additional studies are needed, especially regarding the parts of the proposed system not contemplated in the 2012 project. Such studies are also of crucial importance considering that AMLO says the private sector would finance most of the undertaking as part of a public-private partnership. There presumably could be strong private interest in operating the segments on which passenger traffic would be heaviest, but the risks involved in building the train tracks and stations are so great as to practically preclude private parties' turning a profit, especially on the most challenging segments, such those that entail elevated tracks or steep grades in mountainous regions in Chiapas. Those challenges could mean the government would be left assuming responsibility for infrastructure expenditures, which could account for up to 70% of total investment. And stakeholders must be convinced, including serious consultations with indigenous communities throughout the region.
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