Politics: More Variables Ahead of 2018 Vote
Major opinion polls involving a hypothetical field of the strongest contenders from each party for the 2018 presidential contest show Morena’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador in first place. But despite the impression in some quarters that he is gaining insuppressible momentum, he is still in a technical dead heat with the best-positioned PAN hopeful, Margarita Zavala. It is still unclear whether Zavala will get the nomination, but these rankings prefigure the same sort of two-way presidential contests we have witnessed in the three presidential contests since the PRI ceased to control the political board nationally 17 years ago. That incumbent party appears to have few opportunities for rebuilding broad support under the weight of President Peña Nieto’s dismal approval ratings, and its strongest potential candidate, Minister of the Interior Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong, has remained locked in third place for more than a year now.
In any event, the victory equation this time around will include a number of factors that will only be determined over the course of the campaign:
The major parties must consolidate their respective voter bases, an issue of special importance to the PAN in light of the bitter nomination fight shaping up in that party.
Given the fragmentation of the vote nationally, alliances may play a decisive role. The PRD could be the swing party, three minor parties – MC, PES and Panal – could jointly make a difference, and for a variety of reasons they may all be inclined toward allying with the PAN.
State governors are always a major factor in getting out the vote, but if the 15 who belong to the PRI see their party being relegated to a distant third they may try to hedge their bets by stealthily throwing support toward either AMLO or the PAN.
And lastly, the percentage of the electorate that says it does not identify with any party has already risen to around 40 percent, so the direction in which those independent voters ultimately gravitate will be especially important. If none of the potential independent candidates for president begin to gain any traction, this segment of the voting public may have to choose from among the nominees. One unknown factor is the ability of the PAN to choose someone with strong appeal to such disaffected voters.
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