Politics: Morena remains top dog, but faces serious challenges ahead of 2024
Morena is still clearly the front-runner in public opinion polls. However, recent developments have highlighted internal divisions and public dissatisfaction with its elected representatives that could complicate the party’s prospects in the 2024 presidential elections.
Recent public sparring between Morena’s senate caucus leader, Ricardo Monreal, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador foreshadow more serious disputes over who will be the party’s standard bearer in 2024. Furthermore, Monreal’s criticism of “radicalism” in the government and the party indicate underlying political differences. If Morena is perceived as being too radical, stridently populist, and moving to the far left, its vote in sectors of the middle class that contributed to AMLO’s victory in 2018 could suffer as a result.
Internally, the selection of gubernatorial candidates in four of the six states with elections this year has provoked bitter internal battles within Morena that potentially threaten party unity and therefore the prospects of winning at the ballot box. Recriminations from those not chosen in Durango, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca and Quintana Roo also underscore the absence of institutional and democratic functioning in Mexico’s largest party. There is widespread discontent in the party ranks over politicians from the PRI, PAN, and PRD seeking to run, and win, on the Morena ticket.
Morena chooses its candidates through the novel method of public opinion polls. The use of opinion polls, while legal since it is contemplated in the party’s bylaws, nevertheless has sparked sharp divisions and the possibility of splits, with this selection method perceived as undemocratic since accusations have been raised about the results being manipulated by the leadership and the lack of any transparency in the procedure.
The party’s fortunes will surely also be affected by widespread voter disenchantment with the performance of Morena officials in government, many of whom are viewed as inept and ineffective. Attention has largely centered on states such as Puebla, Veracruz, and Morelos, but a recent Mitofsky poll shows that of the nine most poorly evaluated governors, seven belong to Morena or its allies. This could obviously have major repercussions in 2024.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report