Politics: Morena scores gains on the state level along with losses in the aggregate vote
Analysts across the political spectrum are studying Morena's performance in the June 6 mid-term elections. At stake is the future of the Fourth Transformation, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s project for a radical transformation of Mexican society. Continuing the 4T after AMLO leaves office in 2024 requires that Morena win big.
Morena is a new party and still under construction. Its presence and strength is uneven nationwide. It lacks an institutionalized organizational structure and is riddled by infighting between undeclared warring factions. But thus far it has successfully channeled mass discontent with the country’s political system and over the state of the economy, particularly among the poor.
In the June 6 elections Morena won 11 of the 15 gubernatorial races, significantly extending its presence in northern Mexico and consolidating its strength in Pacific coast states. It ratified its majority in the Chamber of Deputies, albeit without the 2/3 needed to amend the constitution to achieve AMLO’s reforms.
But Morena experienced a major drop in its vote. In the states where the governor’s spot was up for grabs, the party’s vote declined 27% compared to 2018. This can be attributed in some areas to its poor performance in office, the fielding of unpopular candidates, the party’s chaotic internal situation, and to the fact that the party was not able to ride directly on AMLO's coattails. While a drop in net votes was a major factor, this time around Morena also had to face the PRI, PAN, and PRD not separately, but running joint candidates.
The party’s most serious setback occurred in Mexico City, its traditional stronghold and the political center of the country. In what came as a surprise to all, Morena went down to defeat in a majority of the city’s 16 municipalities, and citywide the net loss was a whopping 1.2 million votes. Recovering the nation’s capital is essential if the party is to win in 2024.
The question of questions is whether Morena will be able to put its house in order and rely on its own strength and record in office or whether voter disillusionment will take a further toll and diminish its possibilities.
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