Politics: Morena wins 4 of 6 governors’ races, albeit under complicating circumstances

MEXICO - Report 13 Jun 2022 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

When the dust settled on June 5, in the six state gubernatorial races up for grabs, Morena won four of the races. This brings the number of the country’s 32 states governed by the party to 20 (22 including its allies). Predictably, AMLO’s party was awash in triumphalism. But the victories occurred with important mitigating circumstances. In Hidalgo, Quintana Roo, and Oaxaca, PRI governors operated on behalf of Morena behind the scenes, in two states the opposition did not present a joint coalition ticket, and in Hidalgo the opposition coalition candidate had been imposed from above and was widely rejected by voters who might normally cast their ballots for the PRI or PAN.

But the undeniable fact is that the opposition is in trouble. The biggest loser was the PRI, with Morena's taking three of its governorships. In three of the states the former ruling party clocked in with single-digit percentages, and in Quintana Roo it almost lost its ballot status. The PRI is engulfed in internal infighting, scandals, and is widely discredited in voters’ eyes due to its past performance in office. Even the PAN, now the largest opposition party, has seen its fortunes at the ballot box decline. Its vote is down 12% from four years ago, and in five of the six states with elections this year its vote totals were lower than in 2016. Only in Tamaulipas did the PAN gain votes, although Morena won the state.

The key to an opposition victory in the 2024 presidential elections is keeping its fragile coalition united, presenting a good candidate and a credible programmatic alternative to the voters, and above all, overcoming popular distrust and the bad reputation its component parties have earned. An additional factor would be attracting the Citizens’ Movement (MC) to its ranks, although so far the MC says it’s not interested.

Next year’s elections in the State of Mexico and Coahuila could well be a test run for 2024. Morena is getting its house in order and kicked off the fight on Sunday with a mass united rally in Toluca, capital of the State of Mexico.

Now read on...

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