Moreno and Lasso Probably Disputing the Presidency

ECUADOR - In Brief 10 Feb 2017 by Magdalena Barreiro

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According to the Electoral Law, February 8th was the last day to publish presidential polls results before the elections on February 19th. These last publications are not much different from the ones provided back in January 24th. Around 30% of Ecuadorians still have not yet decided whom they will vote for, which casts doubts on the accuracy of the polls. Lenin Moreno, the official candidate continues to lead the race with a vote intention between 26% and 35% according to five out of six pollsters. Only one, clearly aligned with the government (Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios) raises this estimate to 43%. Also, five out of six, place Guillermo Lasso (CREO) as the second runner up with percentages between 15 and 22 while Cynthia Viteri (Social Christian Party) follows with an average of 15%. Only one pollster (Market) places Viteri in second place. Five out of the six pollsters find that non-valid votes have an average of 16% (versus a historical 10%). With this number, if CEDATOS is correct i.e., the actual percentage for Moreno would be 38.45% (32.5%/0.84). This is not enough to reach the minimum 40% of valid votes but would meet the minimum 10% over the second place necessary to win the elections in just one round. However, it does not rule out the possibility due to statistical error. In this context, the majority of pollsters believe there will be a second round in which Moreno and Lasso will dispute the presidency of Ecuador. Lasso and Viteri have shown similar political approaches, but in our opinion Lasso has maintained a more prudent political speech- except for his offer to create one million jobs in the next four years –while Vitery has displayed a more ...