Politics: The most recent GEA-ISA survey shows candidate Claudia Sheinbaum with an initial advantage

MEXICO - Report 02 Oct 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

The most recent GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters shows presidential approval bounced 5 percentage points to 62%, along with a significant shift in the reasons respondents cited for commending AMLO’s performance away from general empathic associations to tangible factors arising from his policies. The percentage of those who see their household’s economic situation favorably reached a new high for the López Obrador era even though the percentage of respondents who think the national economy is faring well slipped sharply. However, while the latter measure stands at 45%, it is still 28 pts. higher than those with a negative view. Lastly, a clear majority chose “hopeful” as the term that best describes how they see the current state of the country. That is the highest such reading to date.

Those favorable perceptions, along with the offensive the AMLO administration and its supporters have conducted since June against presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez help explain why virtual Morena nominee Claudia Sheinbaum enjoys a considerable lead of roughly 20 points. But in the previous three presidential contests, the candidate that was well out front roughly ten months before Election Day saw that lead dissipate by anywhere from 30 to 22 points, including in 2006, when Felipe Calderón came from far behind to defeat AMLO is his first presidential bid. A lot is riding on how effectively each camp conducts its campaign.

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