MPC: check, Fitch: check, Syria: check

TURKEY - Report 25 Jan 2026 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The politics author starts his analysis with a heads-up which is not covered in the main body of the Weekly: Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan suspects Israel is about to attack Iran, a suspicion seconded in numerous international media sources. The Mullah regime falling without a clear successor, or blockading the Straits of Hormuz, high oil prices and an influx of a large number of refugees present moderate to severe risks to the Turkish outlook, which need to be closely monitored.

In Syria, the Syrian National Army (SNA) uprooted Kurds from all of their positions West of the Euphrates and to the East, so much so that Kurds now only control a tiny sliver of the country. They are given 15 days to surrender or get crushed. They will surrender, with Turkey winning big and Israel the opposite.

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It has been a good week for the economy and markets, with the CBRT cutting more cautiously than anticipated and Fitch upgrading the credit outlook. Not much else happened on the economy front, however. In a nutshell, manufacturing and consumer confidence indices edged down and up respectively, in January, but they generally seem to be holding up, while the housing markets ended the year on a reasonably vibrant note.

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