MPC does the expected, says disinflation slowed, risks more pronounced

TURKEY - Report 23 Oct 2025 by Murat Ucer

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by 100 bps to 39.5% today, in line with (median) expectations, which we had posited as a compromise move of sorts in our Sunday post, so we were not surprised.

The key change in today’s statement pertains to the paragraph on inflation developments and outlook, which now states, aside from the (obvious) fact that the underlying inflation rose in September, that: i) recent data suggests demand conditions are at disinflationary levels, but that disinflation slowed, and ii) recent price developments pose a more pronounced risk now.

Now read on...

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