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TURKEY - Report 12 Dec 2018 by Murat Ucer

The Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow (December 13, 2018). The consensus forecasts we’ve seen from multiple media sources uniformly anticipate no change in short-term rates. We strongly concur with the consensus, although, given the Bank’s track record, we would never completely rule out a surprise cut. But we also think that the Bank is very likely to stay put at least in this round, i.e. to keep the policy rate at its current level of 24% (weekly repo, simple) -- because the market reaction would be considerably negative if the policy rate were to be prematurely reduced, given the fragility of the current market sentiment.

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