Mr. Erdogan goes to Washington
Erdogan added another one to Turkey’s recent gains in foreign policy by scoring an invitation from Trump to the White House on the 25th of September. Trump may visit Turkey in October too. The politics author anticipates a lucrative meeting for the US, and a productive one for Turkey. Gaza and Israel aggression are thorny topics, but he believes these will be neatly compartmentalized, in order not to infect the bigger deals cooking elsewhere between the two countries.
At home, an appeals court sided with the lower court convicting Ekrem Imamoglu of insulting public officials, which also carries a four-year ban from any elected office. With numerous court cases against Imamoglu in progress, is this important? Probably it is no more than a message to CHP to give up all hope, but some pundits hint it may be a preliminary indicator of early elections sometime in 2026. The politics author doesn’t dismiss this conclusion and is on the lookout for other signs of elections.
During the week, in an interview, new Syrian strongman al Sharaa gave obstinate Syrian Kurds until the end of the year to accept a centralized Syria, lest they face a joint Turkey-Syria military operation. The Turkish Defense Minister replied, “just say the word”. Subjugating Kurds with military action is not the favorite option of Erdogan, but with Israel gradually increasing its influence among Syrian minorities, it may turn out to be a case of “needs”.
Not much happened on the economy front last week. Production indices painted a generally weak picture in July, suggesting a weak start to the quarter, while August central government budget data was rather solid, with the 12-month rolling deficit improving to some 3.6% of GDP, we estimate, notably down from around 5% a few quarters earlier.
After falling by a cumulative $5 billion or so in the two-week period through September 15, CBRT net reserves have fallen by another $0.8 billion during the 4 days of the past week, we reckon.
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