Mr. Murat Cetinkaya to Become the New CBRT Governor

TURKEY - In Brief 11 Apr 2016 by Murat Ucer

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Today the government has decided on the appointment of Mr. Murat Cetinkaya -- currently a Deputy Governor and an MPC member -- as the new Governor of the CBRT. Mr. Cetinkaya (together with Dr. Ahmet Faruk Aysan, the Bank Board's Representative at the MPC) was among the most likely candidates for taking the post, as a "compromise" candidate of sorts, so his appointment should not come as a major surprise to markets. Its impact should also be reasonably neutral or even somewhat positive in the short run, in the sense that a worse outcome -- e.g., appointment of someone extremely close to President Erdogan, a complete outsider or a very unfamiliar name -- has been avoided. However, this appointment should comfort us little in the way of CBRT reasserting its independence, rebuilding its anti-inflationary credentials, and turning to a simpler and more orthodox framework any time soon. If anything, this appointment possibly means that the rate cuts (notably of the O/N lending rate) -- that have begun last month -- will become more aggressive and deeper, as long as market conditions continue to be reasonably benign, and the lira does not spiral out of control. Mr. Cetinkaya is the youngest MPC member (born in 1976) who has also been the quietest, based on our impressions during a few encounters, including at the economist meetings in Ankara. As for his background, he has held managerial posts in Islamic banks (Al Baraka Turk and Kuveyt Turk -- the latter was his last job before becoming Deputy Governor) as well as in Halk Bank (the SME-focused state bank) and is a Ph.D Candidate at Bogazici University in Istanbul -- a detailed CV is available at this link: http://tcmb.gov.tr/...